The Demi-Ashton Ratio

Ajay Kapur’s term for the ratio of middle-aged to young people – which has been shown to influence the stock market.

Reporting recently for The Globe and Mail, David Parkinson asked: “We knew Demi Moore and Ashton Kutcher were pop-culture pets. But who would have pegged the Hollywood couple as a stock market indicator?”

Ajay Kapur, that’s who. The global strategist for Mirae Asset Financial Group says his Demi-Ashton Ratio – so coined because it measures a country’s population in its 40s (as Ms. Moore is) relative to those in their 20s (as Mr. Kutcher was when he married Ms. Moore in 2005) – is a reliable indicator of the five-to-10-year trend in that country’s stock market.

His analysis shows that when the ratio (known in academic circles as the Middle-Young Ratio) is growing, i.e. the proportion of “Demis” is rising relative to the “Ashtons,” the market’s long-term trend is upward. When the “Ashtons” are increasing faster than the “Demis,” the market’s long-term trend is down.

According to Kapur, the Demi-Ashton ratio “holds true across a range of developed markets since 1950.” This is because middle-aged people generally have more money (and inclination) to invest in the stock-market than those in their twenties.